Monday, October 25, 2010

Agricultural 2010-10-22

 Accurate quote the highest rate of golden eagle three stock indexes

references cited contend the highest accuracy of the three stock market indicators the

accuracy of rustic top three stock indexes, situation, choose the Twenty-five of the

indicators used by the computer test, is unexpected is that such KDJ, MACD, moving

average indicators, leading indicators such as Boolean indicator of success is not

particularly high, the highest accuracy of the three indicators are Vr, Bias and the

RSI are three indicators, respectively, are introduced as follows:

a, vr

principle and application of indicators i use:

the role of the indicator is the volume angle measurement share the heat, the

performance of stock market trading momentum, in order to facilitate investors to grasp

the trend of stock prices may go. The indicator is based on

ii use:

1. vr distribution of

a, low-cost area: 70 to 40 - can be bought for the regional

b, safe area: 150 ~ 80 - the normal distribution area

c, profit area: 450 ~ 160 - should be considered profits

d, warning area: 450 or more - price is too high

2. In the low-cost region, vr values go up again, you can buy,

3. In vr> 160, the stock price, vr peak value can be sold,

iii use of experience:

1. vr indicators in low-cost regions, higher accuracy, when vr> 160 distortion may from

time to time, especially in the 350 and 400 high-end area, sometimes occur after

selling the stocks, the stock still Xuzhang phenomenon, a time to meet the psy mental

ray index to resolve problems.

2. vr less than 40 forms, the use of movements in individual stocks, the stock price

often occurs rebound effect can not be effective, then vr is only maintained at 40 and

60 between the two. Thus, this signal is used in the indices more appropriate, and with

the adr, obos ... ... is very good use of other indicators.

iv formula:

1.24 days since the stock rose the day who are called volume av, av sum of the 24 days

after the sum referred to avs.

2.24 days since the day those who fell are called volume bv, bv the sum of the 24 days

after the sum referred to as bvs.

3.24 days or whatever the stock price does not rise, the turnover of the day are called

cv,bailey UGG boots, cv will be the sum of the sum of 24 days, later known as cvs.

4. Commencing 24 days:

vr = (avs +1 / 2cvs) / (bvs +1 / 2cvs)

5. Cases of 24 days calculated parameters can be modified, but the cycle of not less

than 12, otherwise, less likely to cause the number of days sampling bias. v vr Index

unique methodologies

vr index analysis focused on the special curve shape vr, vr curves away from and so on.

vi vr curve shape

vr curves of the various forms is to determine market trends, determine the timing of a

trading method.

1, when the formation of m vr curve at a high level such as at the top of the head or

triple top reversal pattern may indicate a strong turn by the weak stock prices, stock

prices will collapse, it is timely to sell stocks. If the price curve also appeared to

confirm the same shape even more, the decline in m can be used such as head or triple

top formation theory to judgments.

2, when there w vr curve in the low end or the end of such triple bottom reversal

pattern may indicate the weak into a strong stock price, the stock will bounce up and

can absorb a small amount of bargain stocks. If the price curve appears the same form

can also confirm that the increase can be underground or triple w theory of determining

the end of form.

3, vr curve shape in the form of m head and the accuracy of the triple top is greater

than w and triple bottom end.

vii vr curve away from

vr vr curve deviated from the target refers to the movement direction of the curve and

k exactly the opposite direction the trend chart. vr indicators have deviated away from

the top and bottom away from two. k

when the stock price on the stock trend chart of a peak than a peak, the share price

has been rising, and vr vr graph indicators on the trend is a high peak in the lower

than a peak, called the top against the phenomenon. Phenomenon is generally away from

the top of the high price reversal signal that the stock will decline in the short

term, is a sell signal. k

when the stock price on the stock trend chart of a peak lower than a peak, the share

price to fall, and vr vr graph indicators on the trend is in the low end to one end of

a lower end away from the phenomenon called . Departure from the general phenomenon of

the end of the stock price will be low reversal signal that stock prices will rise in

the short term, is a buy signal.

and other technical indicators judged away from the phenomenon, as in vr departure

from, the top against the judged accuracy than DIFF. When the stock price at a high

level, vr are high tops and deviation, that is about to reverse the downward stock

price, investors can sell the stock in time.

viii vr indicators combat skills

vr index structure is relatively simple, only one vr curve, therefore, relative to

other indicators, it is judged that is relatively simple and clear, practical skills

focused on vr the direction of the curve on the side. Vr indicators as too simple, in

order to more accurately judged that market, we can use vr indicators and obv a

combination of determining the market index. Vr to analysts on the following

indicators, for example, to reveal their trading and wait functions.

ix trading signal

1, when the vr curve shape of a run lower than the previous bottom, and obv curve shape

to run a higher than the previous bottom, while share prices in the short-term moving

average breaking , then the index and obv there vr MACD trend, which is given short-

term indicators vr buy signal. Figure (151) below.

2, when the vr curve form of a run lower than one, and obv the running form of a curve

than a high, short-term moving average share price also broke down, then that index and

obv vr top against the trend appears, it is vr short-term sell signal indicators

issued. Figure (152) below.

x holding macro news signal

1, when the vr curve and the curve is almost the same time get rid of low obv

consolidation pattern, rose up quickly, if the share price rise based on short-term

moving average, it means short-term upward trend in stock prices has been formed, which

is holding vr indicators to be issued up signal. Figure (153) below.

2, when the vr curve and obv with the curve down from a high fall, if the stock price

was down in the suppression of short-term moving average, it means short-term downward

trend in share prices has been formed, which is issued vr indicators hold out

signaling.

Second, the deviation rate (Bias) principle and application of indicators

i deviate from the rate of deviation from the origin

rate (Bias) is attached to the moving average line index, no moving average, there was

no deviation from the rate, can be derived from moving average indicators. Moving

average can only be used to determine trends, can not predict the stock price high and

low points, and deviation rate (Bias) can be used to test the high and low points.

Genan Wei (jogepsb ganvle) Professor of Law in the eight, said: If the stock price from

moving average (MA) too far, the future stock price will move towards the moving

average close to, this is the moving average price and the distance is the deviation.

formula: P - (T) MA

(T) MA

T: representative of the number of days, that is, a few days moving average

P : the day's closing price

P-(T) MA: moving average for the price and the distance is the deviation.

if the rally, a deviation is positive, because stock prices will be above the moving

average is a positive deviation; Similarly, if the downward trend, a deviation is

negative, the negative deviation. ii deviate from the rate



range of features: high and low forecast price band

trend: Bias plus a moving average, price trend can be seen that

leader of: the Bias k as the relationship between line and the moving average, trading

can occur leading k line strength of the signal

: According to the Deviation of Bias can measure the strength of the strength of long

and short < br>
iii how to play Bias

range of features (1). As stock prices created by human behavior, both human behavior,

it will repeat a certain pattern. Performance in the stock price, that is, the higher

up, chasing the high buying less, and shareholder profits have been some level of

action would be sold; or deeper low will reduce the shareholder to kill and sell

pressure reduced, increasing the bargain hunting. The Bias is in the measurement of

this critical point, ie the share price reversals.

(2). and Bias comes from the moving average, while the moving average Gelan Bi eight

rules, four rules and Bias on:

A. shares up high, it will move toward Average back.

B. battered share price will close towards the moving average.

C. When the rally, hit back up the moving average, is to buy.

D. When the decline, the rebound hit down the moving average, is the selling point.

the above four points, which is line That C. rally, back to the zero line is buy; D.

decline in the rebound to the zero axis is the selling point.

(3). in accordance with past Bias great value, minimum value to predict the future of

the high and low stock price, which is the historical trajectory from the past to do

the forecast high and low points, and that the trajectory of history that is, a

deviation from the unit interval. Experience

iv

rate with a deviation indicator to judge the market's top-BIAS

the end of the 20th of the broader market BIAS deviation rate can more effectively

determine the market's top and bottom, and 5 , 10,UGG bailey button, of the deviation

rate can not determine the market's top and bottom.

general, the broader market's 20 BIAS deviation rate is less than -4, the occurrence of

greatly increasing the possibility bottom bounce, and less than -7, the possibility of

a rebound more than 90%. On the contrary, in its more than 3.8, greatly increasing the

possibility peaked and should gradually lighten up. Continue to rise is also often near

the top, and that is a hoisting process.

Also in the strong market, the broader market may be in the form of sideways to resolve

the extreme overbought technical indicators, including the 20th BIAS deviation rate is

greater than 3.8 may also be sideways or continue to rise, But this is relatively

small.

strength should be combined with the broader market conditions at that time, other

technical indicators, and K lines to make a major resistance level comprehensive

judgments. So when BIAS is greater than 3.9 20, the action should be taken to lighten

up! Strong City in a timely manner should be low, cover positions quickly and make the

difference to be met.

up more to fall, or more to rise, which is the basic law of the stock market run, and

this rule directly reflected in the BIAS (Deviation rate index) on. Good use of this

indicator, to grasp the volatility of the high and low points near the turning point

has a very good reference value. Moreover, the use of very simple, and sometimes on the

stock price volatility at a glance, or even mental arithmetic is a theory does not

require much tool and a simple, realistic and practical indicators.

BIAS, is actually a reference price and the moving average as a reference. For ordinary

investors, 5, 5 BIAS deviation rate of the real high value. The 5th BIAS specific

method of calculation is: (closing price the day -5 day moving average) / 5-day moving

average × 100. Simplified calculation method can also be: (closing price the day / 5

day moving average -1 ) × 100.

is for the broader market, 5 to -5 below BIAS firmly bargain hunting; the 5th BIAS to

-8, the firm bought. Historically, whenever the broader market slump appears low heavy

volume when the market is often a major turnaround time. This time, investors should

closely observe the varieties that was the first to rebound. These new varieties may be

the first to enter the main , investors should avoid cool, because even if there are

market outlook, then 5, BIAS that the market is still the possibility of correction, so

that although the number to impairment charges, but is still useful to maintain a good

attitude. 5.19 Once the market price as a strong short squeeze, investors should use

indicators such as the TOW and so on.

is worth noting that the different stages of operation in the broader market, the

taking of the above methods are different. The following three stages of operation for

your reference:

Stage: When the broader market fell at an early stage in time, BIAS 5, a larger

negative deviation value, the time is not large positions. Rather, it is to choose the

appearance of the opportunity. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from a

record high point of early 2245, there appeared to -5 5 BIAS situation, then if

investors enter the market, is clearly unwise. Here is a trick to refer to the average

investor can 30, the situation, to tell whether the market is down at the beginning of,

or in late fall. When the broader market averages 30 days after the rapid ascribed high

Guaitou, that are generally in the broader market fell early this time, investors

should avoid, reduce positions. 5 BIAS appear even more significant negative deviation

rate, it would actually provide investors with an ideal departure time.

second stage: When the tape is still down channel, 5 BIAS a larger negative deviation

value, the investor is still time to buy. At this time, 30-day moving average are at a

steep downward position, that the market has not been restored vitality, investors

should look to less.

third stage: a time when the broader market fell, and 30 days moving average down by

the steep, gradually began to slow down and sideways, this one-day drop when stock is

coming when the opportunity to begin . In general, the broader market in the year there

are always one or two opportunities to seize these opportunities, the heart does not

greedy, then the income is to the satisfaction of the application

v Bias law

Bias The principle is too far away on back, because the shares are born with a tendency

to heart, it is mainly people psychological factors. In addition, the economics of the

relationship between price and demand produce such effect to the cause of the heart.

Price low demand for large, needs a large, in short supply, stock prices will rise.

Conversely, the share price high demand for small, over-supply, stock prices will drop,

the final balance, the equilibrium position is center.

Bias application rules mainly from two considerations:

(1) the value from the size of Bias

considerations arise in this regard is the initial Bias ideas. Find a positive or

negative, as long as the Bias of a positive number more than this, we should consider

very dangerous and throws; as long as the Bias than the negative one, we feel that the

opportunity could come, consider buying. So the key question becomes how to find the

positive or negative, they are taking action and the boundary to remain silent.

should be noted that this line with the three factors.

a. Bias and size of the selected parameters.

b. choice is that the specific stocks.

c. different periods, the level of the line may be different.

In general, the greater the parameter, the greater the boundary action. More active

stocks, the greater the choice of boundaries.

Bias introduced in a number of books, given the choice of reference line numbers. Note

that only the reference, depending on the circumstances that we should make an

appropriate adjustment to them. Here just one example:

a. Bias (5)> 3.5%, Bias (10)> 5%, Bias (20)> 8%, and Bias (60)> 10% is sold out of

time.

b. Bias (5)> -3%, Bias (10) <-4.5%, Bias (20) <-7% and Bias (60) <-10% is sold time.

from the above figures we can see that the choice of positive and negative numbers is

not symmetric, in general, the absolute value of a positive number larger than the

absolute value of negative numbers. For example, 3.5> 3 and 5> 4.5 and so on. The

larger the absolute value of positive selection is the dividing line between the

general law.

if they are profitable or because unexpected bad news situation spike generated by the

above reference number that certainly does not work, should consider other emergency

measures. By the author's experience, when the spike:

a. For the composite index,

Bias (10)> 30% for the throw time,

Bias (10) <-10% for the buying opportunity.

b. For stocks

Bias (10)> 35% is thrown out the timing,

Bias (10) <-15% as a buying opportunity.

(2) Bias in the shape of the curve from the considerations on the morphology and the

tangent

Bias on the theory can be applied.

a. Bias from top to bottom to form two or more declining peaks, while the price

continues to rise at this time, this is thrown out of the signal.

b. Bias formed from the bottom upward of two or more of the valley, while the price

continues to fall at this time, this is a buy signal.

departure from the above two principles contain indicators and trends in the content.

(3) the integration from the two lines

Bias when wearing short term under Bias Bias in the high when a sell signal; in the

low, long-term wear when on Bias buy signal.

vi Bias Problems in application.

(1) book to provide specific figures are only for reference, the correct approach is to

find the line in practice, the position of their own.

(2) Bias quickly reached the first peak or the first Valley of the operation are the

most prone to error, should be particularly careful.

(3) Bias of the application should be combined with the use of MA, this effect may be

better. Of course, more technical indicators with the combination will greatly reduce

the Bias of the error. Specific binding assay as follows:

a. Bias through the 0 line from the bottom up, or down from the previous Bias may also

be taken through the 0 line of action of the signal. Wear for the buy signal on the

next to wear for the sell signal. Because at this time, the stock is also in the same

direction through the MA.

b. Bias is positive, the share price above the MA, if the stock dropped to under MA,UGG

shoes, but then they rebounded to above the MA, while Bias also showed the same trend,

this is the buy signal. Sell signal for the decline may also be similar to the

treatment.

c. Bias is positive, and down to 0, close to 0:00 if the bounce up, then this is a buy

signal. Bias can be on the negative do the same.

III Relative Strength Index RSI

Relative Strength Index RSI is used for futures trading in the first, and later it was

found that the indicators used to guide the effects of stock market investment is also

very good, and the characteristics of the index continuously and summarized. Now, RSI

has become the most widely used technology investors, one of the indicators. The

general principles of investing that investors trading behavior is the result of

various factors reflect changes in market supply and demand ultimately depends on the

relationship, and RSI index is based on the principle of supply and demand balance,UGG

boots, a certain period by measuring the total rate of price rise the average price

change accounted for a percentage of the total range, to evaluate the degree of

strength and weakness of long and short, and then suggest the specific operation. The

application of RSI on the surface is more complex rules, including a cross, number,

morphology, and departure from the principles and other aspects of the judge, but the

RSI indicator almost cover all commonly used method to judge, so if investors fully

grasp the application of rules RSI will contribute to the understanding of other

technical indicators and applications.

i observed two or more different parameters of the position relationship curve

RSI curves use different parameters exactly the same rules of moving average, the

smaller short-term RSI curve parameters if located RSI curve parameters over a larger

long-term, the current market is a bull market; the other hand, for the bear market.

RSI calculation of the parameters of the larger time frame for a larger and therefore

more reliable conclusions. However, as with the average system can not avoid the

shortcomings of slow response, which is in the course of attention to be RSI values

based on the size of ii to determine the operating direction

RSI value will be divided between 0 and 100 from Different parameters, its regional

division is different. In general, the parameters of the larger, more recent line 50

from the center line, the more far away from the l00 and 0. But most should fall within

the range 15,30 to 70,85. RSI value if more than 50, indicating that the market access

and strong city, can consider buying, but if it continues into the Similarly RSI values

below 50, too, if they go into the

iii RSI curves of morphological analysis

area when the RSI curves of high or low areas in the formation of multiple head and

shoulders or the top (bottom) of the form, you can consider trading operation. These

patterns to appear farther away from the axis 50, the higher the credibility of the

signal, the error less likely. For the K line shape analysis of all conventional

methods, the analysis of the RSI curves are applicable. For example, in the K line

graph on the same trend line can be used in the RSI. RSI curve up and down high and low

points in the emerging trend line can be connected, this trend line also plays the role

of support and resistance lines, once exceeded, can refer to K line analysis to

determine whether the trend of previous end.

iv deviate from the terms of RSI and the stock price to determine the market. RSI

judged in a variety of methods, with the departure from the RSI and the stock price to

determine the most reliable market. In the course of stock prices ever higher, if the

RSI is high, but did not follow the stock to form a high of more than a high,

suggesting that stock prices Going up may have entered the final stage, when the top

there is a relatively clear departure from the sale of the signal. And this situation

is the opposite end of departure. The low RSI occurs slowly climbed, although the price

is still declining, but the RSI is no longer a new low, when that decline coming to an

end, consider an appropriate time for these positions.

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